This is my weekly review of the regression-based Predictive Models, along with some comments on the charts, for the S&P 500 index, the 10 Year Treasury Yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index.

S&P 500 Index

EPCR 20/50 model – 3rd decile
EPCR 20/100 model – 5th decile
S&P 500 13-week model – 8th decile (was 7th)
S&P 500 52-week model – 9th decile

Time-frame issues are of some concern. Short-term weakness is certainly possible, but things are looking up for the next quarter or year in my opinion. Again, sectors are the story – the index does not encompass all.

10-Year Treasury Yields

10YT 13-week model – 6th decile
10YT 52-week model – 3rd decile

The 13-week model is still neutral on whether rates will rise or fall, but the 52-week model is still looking for lower rates in a year. From the chart, I think we’re done, but I thought we were done last week at this time. The rest of the world is coming around to my long-held thinking that rate cuts would start in 2006 or early 2007.

U.S. Dollar Index

USDX 13-week model – 9th decile
USDX 52-week model – 9th decile

The regression models are supportive of a USDX buy, but the chart is flatlined and has whipsawed at least one MMA signal.