Well, almost! If it weren’t for a late surge in the last quarter hour, the S&P 500 would have had “a week with (1) light volume, (2) a six-week high, and (3) a close below the open,â the recipe for the undeniable short setup. Only 0.29 S&P 500 points kept the index from printing this fearful candlestick pattern!
Riiiiggght.
Since we came OH-so-close to printing it, I thought a revisit was in order. As discussed a couple of months ago, using that “undeniable short setup” pattern on the S&P 500 would have given you a hygienic timepiece. It does portend a weaker-than-normal return on the index over the next few weeks, but a still-positive, and positive most of the time, return. With only 147 instances of the setup in the last half-century-plus of S&P 500 tracking, and a less than dramatic performance, I’m convinced this index setup is buncomb.
Last month, however, I looked at this setup for individual stocks. Since indices are far more mean-reverting than individual stocks, it is my semi-tested hypothesis that this “undeniable short setup” is, in actuality, a great long setup in the making, merely a short-term weakness usable as an opportunity to buy longer-term strength. In the spirit of that belief, I will list every stock that fit the scanner qualifications as of today’s close, and will revisit them directly. There were quite a lot of them, befitting a very bullish last couple of months, and the only things removed from this “scanner dump” are the obvious ETFs and a warrant or two.
For those that care, the StockCharts.com scanner criteria is:
[type = stock] and
[[exchange is nyse] or [exchange is nasdaq] or [exchange is amex]] and
[sma(30,volume) * sma(30,close) >= 1,000,000] and
[max(5,high) = max(30,high)] and
[close < 4 days ago open] and
[sma(5,volume) < sma(30,volume)] and
[roc(30) >= 7.3]
The stocks are:
ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM), $28.67; Accuray Inc. (ARAY), $24.95; Advantage Energy Income Fund (AAV), $11.56; AGEdwards, Inc. (AGE), $74.96; Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A), $36.21; Air France (AKH), $49.61; Allegheny Energy, Inc. (AYE), $55.25; Allied World Assurance Company Holding Ltd. (AWH), $46.25; Altra Holdings Inc. (AIMC), $17.35; America Movil S.A. de C.V (AMX), $55.31; Apogee Enterprises, Inc. (APOG), $24.62; Arrowhead (ARWR), $6.80; Atlas Air Worlwide Hldgs (AAWW), $59.22; Axa (AXA), $45.74; Banco Santiago (SAN), $51.90; BASF Group (BF), $119.19; BE Aerospace, Inc. (BEAV), $36.85; Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX), $15.85; CA Inc. (CA), $28.01; Cameco Corp. (CCJ), $50.48; Canadian National Rail Co. (CNI), $51.69; Cemex S.a. (CX), $34.49; Chordiant Software, Inc. (CHRD), $13.31; CIT Group, Inc. (CIT), $59.83; Coca Cola Co. (KO), $52.69; Community Banks, Inc. (CMTY), $32.29; Companhia De Bebidas (ABV/C), $59.46; Complete Production Services Inc. (CPX), $25.55; COPA Holdings S.A. (CPA), $62.16; Core Laboratories N V (CLB), $93.45; Cornell Cos., Inc. (CRN), $24.46; Corrections Corp. Of America (CXW), $59.88; Covance, Inc. (CVD), $65.63; CSX Corp. (CSX), $45.39; Dade Behring Holdings, Inc. (DADE), $50.42; Deerfield Triarc Capital Corp. (DFR), $16.12; Deltic Timber Corp. (DEL), $52.50; Double-Take Software Inc. (DBTK), $16.30; Dover Downs Gaming & Entertainment, Inc. (DDE), $14.43; Eaton Vance Corp. (EV), $38.30; Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL), $11.54; Express Scripts, Inc. (ESRX), $94.29; Fording Inc. (FDG), $25.51; Freddie Mac (FRE), $66.72; Genesco, Inc. (GCO), $49.65; Gen-Probe Inc. (GPRO), $51.96; Gramercy Capital Corp. (GKK), $33.50; Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S.A. de C.V. (ASR), $49.92; Hellenic Telecommunicatio (OTE), $14.68; Herman Miller, Inc. (MLHR), $36.25; Hi-Tech Pharmacal Co., Inc. (HITK), $12.48; Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG), $35.69; Ing Groep NV ADR (ING), $45.17; Interactive Intelligence, Inc. (ININ), $18.34; Intersil Holding Corp. (ISIL), $30.96; J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM), $52.15; Jo Ann Stores, Inc. (JAS), $30.21; Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. (JOSB), $39.13; K2Inc. (KTO), $15.31; Ladish Co., Inc. (LDSH), $41.44; LoopNet, Inc. (LOOP), $18.69; Mastec, Inc. (MTZ), $12.55; Meadowbrook Ins Group, Inc. (MIG), $11.87; Methanex Corp. (MEOH), $25.27; Mevc Draper Fisher Jurvet (MVC), $18.69; Minefinders Corp. Ltd. (MFN), $12.20; Mirant Corp. (MIR), $45.68; Molex Inc. (MOLX), $30.82; Morgan Stanley (MS), $85.15; MTS Systems Corp. (MTSC), $42.76; Mueller Water Products Inc. (MWA/B), $15.32; MWI Veterinary Supply Inc (MWIV), $37.48; NCR Corp. (NCR), $51.67; Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (NAK), $12.23; O2Micro Intl Ltd. (OIIM), $10.525; OMGroup, Inc. (OMG), $58.89; PharmaNet Development Group Inc. (PDGI), $32.33; Pike Electric Corp. (PEC), $21.04; PMC-Sierra, Inc. (PMCS), $7.87; Questar Corp. (STR), $98.73; Rhodia (RHA), $4.13; Rio Narcea Gold Mines Ltd. (RNO), $4.86; Ryerson, Inc. (RYI), $42.41; Sappi Ltd. (SPP), $18.38; Seacoast Banking Corp. of Florida (SBCF), $24.04; Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW), $11.59; Steiner Leisure Ltd. (STNR), $49.03; Stora Enso Oyj (SEO), $18.85; Suez SA (SZE), $57.38; Supervalu, Inc. (SVU), $46.66; SVB Financial Group (SIVB), $52.68; T-3 Energy Services, Inc. (TTES), $28.89; Tessera Technologies Inc. (TSRA), $45.25; Timken Co. (TKR), $33.97; Transatlantic Hldgs, Inc. (TRH), $71.16; Tupperware Brands Corp. (TUP), $28.24; U.S. Energy Corp. (USEG), $6.40; Universal Corp. (UVV), $64.90; Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN), $59.00; VASCO Data Security Intl, Inc. (VDSI), $21.74; Watson Pharmaceuticals (WPI), $31.19; Williams Scotsman Intl. Inc. (WLSC), $23.28; Wyeth (WYE), $55.85; Xinhua Finance Media Ltd. (XFML), $12.05.
