Predictive Model Output - May 25, 2007
The S&P 500 closed at 1515.73.
The five-day “potential” model score is 59 on a scale of 1 to 100. A good even-odds score for next Friday would be 1520. Odds are probably 75% that the index is over 1501 at the close five days from now.
The twenty-day “potential” model score is 69 on a 1 to 100 scale. A good even-odds score for four Fridays from now would be 1535.
The twenty-day “safety” model score is 97 on a 1 to 100 scale. A good even-odds low point for the next four weeks would be 1498, the odds of falling below 1439 are about 2%, and the model gives 0% odds of falling below 1364 at any time in the next four weeks.
The 250-day “potential” model score is 86 on a 1 to 100 scale. A good even-odds score for a year from now would be 1705.
The 250-day “safety” model score is 96 on a 1 to 100 scale. A good even-odds low point for the next 250 sessions would be 1475, the odds of falling below 1364 are around 1%, and the model gives 0% odds of falling below 1136 at any time in the next 250 sessions.
My vote to the Blogger Sentiment Poll by TickerSense is “bullish.”
May 26th, 2007 at 11:44 am
Bill, what is the significance of the numbers on the 1-100. It is probably something obvious, and I’m an idiot for missing it.
Thanks.
May 27th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Rather than post the model output raw, I compare this model output to the test data’s output and percentile rank it. 100 would be as bullish as the model’s ever been over the life of the data set.
In many earlier posts, I decile ranked the output (1-10). Similar concept.