I’ve Found Some of Those Sub-Prime Foreclosures!
Aug.31, 2007 in
Real Estate
Check out this story, which makes one wonder how many sub-prime foreclosures are related to out-and-out fraud, and I really doubt that these foreclosures, in particular, will impact consumer spending! LOL. This one fraud ring accounts for over 100 subprime foreclosures …
Seriously, one fraud ring accounted for over a hundred subprime foreclosures, mostly of the “don’t even make the first payment” variety that the bearmongers moan about the most! How many fraud rings would it take to make a serious dent in the increased foreclosure run rate that’s been making headlines? How many of these fraud rings are there?
August 31st, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Bill,
Per your suggestion, my recession prediction is Q1 of 2008, based on current credit conditions and the expectation that nothing can prevent a credit contraction this time around. IMHO, of course. And as always, I’ll be keeping an eye out here for arguments and data to the contrary.
August 31st, 2007 at 6:10 pm
I don’t want you to be so confident as to paint yourself into a single quarter. I promised you a three-month window on either side around a start date. Unfortunately, the NBER gives start dates as a month, not as a day. So go ahead and expand the range a bit – pick a range of six consecutive months that you think the recession will start within, you know, maybe add a couple of months to the back end or the front end of that Jan-Mar ‘07 pick. G-D-P is revised up to three months late, so we will know conclusively within three months after that range passes whether or not you’ve won!