Comments on: Blogging Cross-Talk: Psychology Observations http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/ Trading, Investing, Politics, Whatever Mon, 06 Oct 2008 19:14:41 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Tailoring Systems to Specific Market Conditions http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75622 Tailoring Systems to Specific Market Conditions Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:01:37 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75622 [...] more robust if it is tailored to a specific market condition?” This is response to a point in Blogging Cross-Talk: Psychology Observations where I said, Systems can be optimized to work in one market regime, with a signal or overlay [...] […] more robust if it is tailored to a specific market condition?” This is response to a point in Blogging Cross-Talk: Psychology Observations where I said, Systems can be optimized to work in one market regime, with a signal or overlay […]

]]> By: The Essentials of Trading http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75505 The Essentials of Trading Wed, 23 Apr 2008 13:59:03 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75505 [...] indicator of a trader’s prospective success.” From a system trader’s perspective, Bill Rempel added “System development and testing never [...] […] indicator of a trader’s prospective success.” From a system trader’s perspective, Bill Rempel added “System development and testing never […]

]]> By: Bill http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75337 Bill Tue, 22 Apr 2008 12:48:44 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75337 Hi Bob, good to see you here! Click on the "Archives" link at the top right of this page (in the "Sitemap" box), and scroll through the "Archives by Category" for "Specific Discussions of Trading Systems" and "Broad Discussions of Trading Strategies." I think you'll really enjoy the <a href="http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/03/trpits-reloaded/" rel="nofollow">TRPITS series</a>. Hi Bob, good to see you here!

Click on the “Archives” link at the top right of this page (in the “Sitemap” box), and scroll through the “Archives by Category” for “Specific Discussions of Trading Systems” and “Broad Discussions of Trading Strategies.”

I think you’ll really enjoy the TRPITS series.

]]> By: Bob http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75326 Bob Tue, 22 Apr 2008 12:31:24 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75326 Bill, I found your blog at Brett Steenbargers site. I've been a full-time discretionary trader for 10 years. I'm looking for direction on how to find and/or work with someone to develop system trading strategies. Any advice or direction would be appreciated. Thanks for your insights. Bob Bill,

I found your blog at Brett Steenbargers site.

I’ve been a full-time discretionary trader for 10 years. I’m looking for direction on how to find and/or work with someone to develop system trading strategies. Any advice or direction would be appreciated.

Thanks for your insights.
Bob

]]> By: Tom K http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75046 Tom K Sun, 20 Apr 2008 21:02:37 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/blogging-cross-talk-psychology-observations/#comment-75046 Bill, I think we're dancing around the meaning of the word "predict". I don't believe anyone can "predict" future market behavior, the result of a single trade, or even the outcome of a series of trades (or system). I do believe it is possible to increase the likelihood of positive outcomes, especially over long periods of time by exploiting anomalies. My card-counter analogy goes like this: He/she cannot predict the outcome of the next hand, or even the outcome of the next series of hands. However, the card counter gains a statistical edge over many many hands. If the card counter uses good money management techniques, they will undoubtable beat the house, however, they're not really 'predicting' outcomes. I also don't believe the market is random, however, I do believe there is a good deal of 'randomness' in the market, especially over the short term. All market 'trend' and experience periods of extreme deviation from the mean, but identifying those trends and extremes isn't exactly easy. Even the best timing and mechanical selection systems will experience periods of poor performance - sometimes very long periods of underperformance. I believe system diversification is a good way to deal with this. Bill,
I think we’re dancing around the meaning of the word “predict”. I don’t believe anyone can “predict” future market behavior, the result of a single trade, or even the outcome of a series of trades (or system). I do believe it is possible to increase the likelihood of positive outcomes, especially over long periods of time by exploiting anomalies. My card-counter analogy goes like this: He/she cannot predict the outcome of the next hand, or even the outcome of the next series of hands. However, the card counter gains a statistical edge over many many hands. If the card counter uses good money management techniques, they will undoubtable beat the house, however, they’re not really ‘predicting’ outcomes.

I also don’t believe the market is random, however, I do believe there is a good deal of ‘randomness’ in the market, especially over the short term. All market ‘trend’ and experience periods of extreme deviation from the mean, but identifying those trends and extremes isn’t exactly easy.

Even the best timing and mechanical selection systems will experience periods of poor performance - sometimes very long periods of underperformance. I believe system diversification is a good way to deal with this.

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