Poor Decisionmaking Plagues the “Big Two”
The problems experienced by the “Big Two,” General Motors (GM) and Ford (F), in North America’s car market aren’t caused by macroeconomic woes. I believe that they are the direct result of poor branding, poor product design, and poor strategic decisionmaking, and that these characteristics are so entrenched and established that they will take decades to root out. In the news last week were two fairly typical case studies: Fiat S.p.A. (OTC: FIATY) announced it was looking for partners to sell Alfa Romeo models in the U.S., and Ford (F) announced the sale of the luxury brands Jaguar and Rover to Tata Motors (TTM).
Fiat is now looking for partners to build cars for the U.S. market. The first U.S. models, probably 2009 model year, will be imported, but eventually they’ll look for plants with idle capacity in North America. Also, the first models will be more exotic (think “Spider 8C”) or retro-chic trendy (think “Fiat 500″) than the Alfa 147 5-door pictured here, but I think something like the 147 will make a lot of sense in the U.S. market. Fiat S.p.A. (OTC: FIATY) has made quite a financial turnaround since Sergio Marchionne took over 4 years ago.
Hmm, wasn’t it just three years ago that General Motors terminated its five-year marriage to Fiat? What a Fiatsco! GM sold out right at the bottom, in terms of Fiat’s Western European light vehicle market share, after throwing quite a bit of money into the Fiat recovery that was to come. Regardless of anything GM might have gained from Fiat’s perceived diesel technology edge, they tossed aside a chance at participating in Western European turnaround and possibly importing some of Fiat’s small cars in the middle of today’s “gas crisis.”
Remember that the deal with Fiat was started months before Rick Wagoner was made CEO of GM, but the decision to throw more money at Fiat, and then to end the deal, was done with Rick as CEO. Strategic decisionmaking is obviously as big a problem for GM as anything in the macroeconomic realm.
Ford announced last week that they are selling their Land Rover and “Jag-You-Are” brands to Tata Motors. This, at the bargain price of about one-third what they paid to buy the brands 19 years ago! Adjusted for the CPI, that is about an 83% loss on their investment in the brands, not counting any cash flow in or out, of course.
What Ford has done to Jaguar’s brand is a crime. The “Baby XJ,” the X-Type, is a tarted-up and rebadged Ford Mondeo (think “Contour” in the U.S. market), making that the equivalent of a time-warped “Cadillac Cimarron” brand decision. Imagine the clean, crisp body shape of the 2000 Contour, on sale as a 2008 “entry-lux” level Jaguar, with a premium price! Yeah, that floats my boat, too.
I can’t say that Ford did nearly as much damage to the Rover Group’s brand name, only because some of their biggest Rover mistakes, like the Freelander (2002-2005), aren’t sold anymore and thankfully aren’t remembered by much of the public. Ford is selling these brands because, in almost two decades of ownership, they haven’t figured out how to capitalize on or expand their luxury images (arguably they have degraded the image of the brands) and haven’t been able to lever the brands into substantial growth.
I know that these are only two data points, but they are recent, and are in my opinion indicative of the modern (3 decades or so) history of the branding, product design, and strategic decisionmaking that the “Big Two” have been guilty of in the U.S. markets. In both these cases, the “Big Two” made substantial partnerships or purchases for known strategic reasons, poured tons of resources into those deals, failed to get meaningful results out of those deals, and eventually sold out of those deals at a significant monetary loss.
The problems of the “Big Two” may be exacerbated by the macro trends of foreign growth and cheaper labor, but they are ultimately not helping themselves with their own incompetence.
Disclosure: no current positions in GM, F, TTM, or FIATY.


April 1st, 2008 at 9:51 pm
I think you have hit the key problem — the degrading of premium brands in the attempt to move upscale.
April 1st, 2008 at 11:37 pm
A problem for auto companies is that their fleets do not currently reflect the concern with high fuel prices. They are planning a transition to more fuel-efficient fleets, but the interim planning is non-existent.
One of my companies has a pending patent on the idea of including fuel price protection as part of the purchase of a motor vehicle. When you buy or lease the vehicle, you get a guaranteed fuel price for two or three years.
The presentation of this idea was a study in private bureaucracy, with no ability to innovate.
One wonders how the auto companies might be doing if customers did not need to worry about rising fuel prices?
April 2nd, 2008 at 6:10 am
@ Paul: Yes! Probably because we project so much of our image, and derive so much of others’ images, from what they drive, it makes the purchase of an automobile one of the least logic-driven 5- or 6-figure outlays that Americans will make. Which makes branding important.
@Jeff: I believe that R&D in the auto industry should be countercyclical. Now is precisely the time that the car companies should be developing their trucks, sports cars, and gas guzzlers. The time to R&D gas-savers was when we had flat to declining gas prices. Doing it that way means that when the price turns, the models needed are close to market. Doing it the way they do it now means that the best econoboxes will be hitting the market by the time the crisis is over …
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:17 pm
“Doing it the way they do it now means that the best econoboxes will be hitting the market by the time the crisis is over …”
This assumes the rise in crude oil and gasoline prices is a cyclical one (and we are now near the peak) and not a secular shift. IMO, $100 oil and $3ish gas might just be the 4th inning. If that view is correct, then development of extremely fuel efficient vehicles should still be the focus.
April 2nd, 2008 at 12:50 pm
Cyclical at irregular intervals, inside a rising trend. See The Demand Curve for Gasoline is Flat. Throughout history, the first to respond to the change has profited; spending R&D on small cars when oil was $20 would have paid off, no? Throughout history, the price of gasoline (and oil) has oscillated about a rising trend, and we are above trend right now. No saying for sure when price will top out, but considering the length of the automotive R&D cycle, I’m pretty confident prices will top before GM gets their heads out of their asses in regards to econobox cars.
You, sir, sound like someone who is saying “THIS time is DIFFERENT!“