Comments on: Tailoring Systems to Specific Market Conditions http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/tailoring-systems-to-specific-market-conditions/ Trading, Investing, Politics, Whatever Mon, 13 Oct 2008 02:20:55 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: Bill http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/tailoring-systems-to-specific-market-conditions/#comment-75995 Bill Sun, 27 Apr 2008 03:10:42 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/tailoring-systems-to-specific-market-conditions/#comment-75995 The <a href="http://billrempel.com/2008/04/19/timing-does-its-job-reducing-volatility/" rel="nofollow">Timing</a> system has a longer-term trend-following element combined with the Fear/Greed portion, which tends to be countertrend. I don't use anything that does this for individual stocks or groups of ETFs right now. I think the TF/CT method works in one of two situations: either a "regime detector" is used to switch the model, or the two systems are used simultaneously but on different timeframes, i.e. long-term TF but taking advantage of short-term CT opportunities. The little bit of playing I've personally done with "regime detecting" has been in the concept of "efficiency of movement," i.e. how much of the issue's movement in the past x units of time has been in the direction of trend? Obviously nothing ever gets 100% efficient (unless it's "limit lock" several days in a row), but comparing the efficiency in recent times to some historical (or longer term) norm appears to be a promising technique there. The Timing system has a longer-term trend-following element combined with the Fear/Greed portion, which tends to be countertrend. I don’t use anything that does this for individual stocks or groups of ETFs right now.

I think the TF/CT method works in one of two situations: either a “regime detector” is used to switch the model, or the two systems are used simultaneously but on different timeframes, i.e. long-term TF but taking advantage of short-term CT opportunities.

The little bit of playing I’ve personally done with “regime detecting” has been in the concept of “efficiency of movement,” i.e. how much of the issue’s movement in the past x units of time has been in the direction of trend? Obviously nothing ever gets 100% efficient (unless it’s “limit lock” several days in a row), but comparing the efficiency in recent times to some historical (or longer term) norm appears to be a promising technique there.

]]> By: Tom K http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/tailoring-systems-to-specific-market-conditions/#comment-75994 Tom K Sun, 27 Apr 2008 02:43:03 +0000 http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2008/04/tailoring-systems-to-specific-market-conditions/#comment-75994 Bill, Do you use a system that combines trend-following and “countertrend” indicators? Also, I would like to read your ideas on "regime detecting" elements. I remember seeing a chart by Ned Davis Research that adjusted OB/OS oscillator levels based on his monetary model. Interesting stuff. Bill,
Do you use a system that combines trend-following and “countertrend” indicators? Also, I would like to read your ideas on “regime detecting” elements. I remember seeing a chart by Ned Davis Research that adjusted OB/OS oscillator levels based on his monetary model. Interesting stuff.

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