The Duck Tales Inflation Lesson
Somewhat appropriate, considering everything. Very well done and enjoyable!
Two minor quibbles come to mind …
1) Most of the Austrians tend towards using MZM or M2 as their definition of “money,” and this doesn’t capture credit impacts - and credit IS money.
2) Theoretically there could be monetary contraction even with rapid expansion by the Federal Reserve, because credit is created (or destroyed) through lots of non-Fed processes.
One word of warning to the “junior currency buffs” … currency movements are RELATIVE to other currencies, all of whom are pretty much constantly devaluing.
The major movers of RELATIVE currency valuation are (a) interest rate differentials and (b) economic prospects.
Consider that more than half of the U.S. structured debt was sold overseas; that foreign, especially European, debt was structured and sold in much the same way; that property values in the U.K. and the continent, especially Spain, were rising at similar paces to coastal and constricted (Las Vegas) markets in the U.S.; and that the U.S. is taking action now that will probably be mirrored by European banks later.
Given those considerations, I suspect that the dollar will hold fairly well or even strengthen on a relative basis.
One last point, outside the context of “inflation” - expect us to be talking about a €700 billion bailout across the pond before too long.


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