Author Archives: Bill

The author formerly known as NO DooDahs!

Aggressive and Personal Trades for May

May 12, 2008 – 7:45 am

In its initial version, Aggressive was an equal-weighted portfolio derived from two different quantitative stock screens, based on companies that trade on U.S. exchanges. Each screen produced an exceptional trading plan by itself, but when the two were combined, the volatility of returns was reduced without much degradation of total returns. This was because their […]

Posted in Specific Discussion of Individual Trades, Specific Discussion of Trading Systems | Comments (0)

Do You Really Need More Information?

May 8, 2008 – 5:57 am

One thing I’ve tried focusing on, sometimes successfully and sometimes not, is simplification. It’s an extension of Occam’s Razor, wherein if two explanations for a phenomenon are viewed to be equally explanatory, the simpler explanation is the “best” one. This is a mental model or heuristic, and like all mental models, it ain’t […]

Posted in Broad Discussion of Trading Strategies | Comments (6)

The Big Picture

May 7, 2008 – 5:37 am

Worth 1,000 words.

Posted in General Market Commentary | Comments (8)

Eight Notes on the End of the Recession Trade

May 6, 2008 – 6:00 am

1. Separate the economy from what happens in the speculative markets, because historically, they don’t track together 100% of the time.
2. The speculative markets definitely had a stagflation/recession trade on until the last month.
3. That trade was being unwound over the last month, in direct response to the official data released and […]

Posted in General Market Commentary | Comments (2)

Don’t Be Fooled By Obama

May 5, 2008 – 7:34 am

Obama out with a statement this weekend about America’s foreign policy consisting of “bluster and saber-rattling.” Don’t be fooled by Obama. He’s no more anti-war or anti-MidEast-meddling than Clinton or McCain is. Remember that “Shrub” ran in 2000 on rhetoric of a “more humble foreign policy,” all the while hiding a true […]

Posted in Politics From the Anarchist P.O.V. | Comments (9)